Connection
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Season & week
Elo settings
Optimised defaults — grid search across 2024 & 2025 seasons found
K=10, minElo edge=6 maximises win rate (61.3% in 2024, 56.6% in 2025, both >55%).
K=10 (slow/stable) outperforms K=20. Min edge=6 filters to only high-conviction picks. HFA has minimal effect at this edge threshold.
Load games from the Setup tab.
Elo power ratings
Build ratings above to see the Elo standings.
Elo model
Builds dynamic power ratings from every completed game result. Accounts for strength of schedule and recency — more reliable early in the season before stats accumulate.
Starting rating1500 for all teams
K-factor20 (adjustable)
Home field advantage55 Elo pts ≈ 2.2 spread pts
MOV multiplierlog(margin+1) × autocorr. correction
Season regression33% toward 1500 each new season
Spread conversion25 Elo pts = 1 spread point
Confidence tiers
Strong
Edge > 4 pts. Model diverges meaningfully from the line.
Lean
Edge 2–4 pts. Proceed with caution.
Avoid
Edge < 2 pts. Too close to the line.
API call log
No calls yet.